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Antonio RIBBA

Professore Associato presso: Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi"


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Pubblicazioni

2020 - Is the unemployment inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract


2020 - The dynamic effects of monetary policy and government spending shocks on unemployment in the peripheral Euro area countries [Articolo su rivista]
Dallari, P.; Ribba, A.
abstract

In this paper we study the response of unemployment to monetary policy and government spending shocks in the peripheral Euro-area countries. By applying the structural near-VAR methodology, we jointly model area-wide and national variables. Our main finding is that fiscal multipliers vary across countries and the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard New Keynesian model only in Italy and Greece. Instead, in Ireland, Portugal and Spain increases in government spending are recessionary. Thus we find that Keynesian results of fiscal policy seem to prevail in high public-debt countries, whereas non-Keynesian outcomes seem to characterize high private-debt countries. As for the monetary policy shock, we find that it plays an important role, jointly with the other area-wide shocks, as a long-term driver of national unemployment.


2020 - The macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small Eurozone economies [Articolo su rivista]
Raduzzi, R.; Ribba, A.
abstract

In this work, we provide an analysis over the period 1999–2015 of the effects of oil shocks on prices and GDP in a group of small Euro-area economies. The group includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In order to characterise the macroeconomic outcomes of movements in oil prices, we adopt the structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. We find that under the European Monetary Union (EMU), oil price shocks have been important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in almost all these countries. Moreover, an increase in oil prices produces significant recessionary effects in all the countries included in the investigation. Thus, although there are different sizes in the responses of output in the investigated countries, our main conclusion is that despite the structural changes experienced by the European economies in the last decades, oil prices still matter for these countries. In the light of these results, we also stress some important challenges for the conduct of monetary policy in the Euro area.


2019 - Is the unemployment inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so [Working paper]
Ribba, A.
abstract

The unemployment inflation trade-off can be interpreted as a proposition concerning the response of these two variables to aggregate demand shocks. In this paper we study the possible presence of the trade-off in the Euro Area and in a wide group of Euroarea countries in the last 20 years, i.e. since the start of EMU. We use the structural VAR methodology that allows the separation between supply and demand shocks. Our main finding is that the existence of a trade-off is largely confirmed both at the Euro Area and at the national level. Nevertheless, the size of the trade-off, measured at different horizons, shows some heterogeneity among countries. No less important, when we augment the VAR model by introducing monetary policy in the context of an open economy, we find that monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the Currency Area. Another interesting result concerns the evidence of a relatively flat relation between unemployment and inflation, conditionally to monetary policy shocks.


2019 - The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy and Government Spending Shocks on Unemployment in the Peripheral Euro Area Countries [Working paper]
Dallari, P.; Ribba, A.
abstract

In this paper we study the response of unemployment to monetary policy and fiscal shocks in the peripheral Euro-area countries. By applying the structural near-VAR methodology, we jointly model Euro area-wide and national variables while preserving the invariance of the set of Euro-area common shocks. Our main finding is that fiscal multipliers vary across countries and the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard New Keynesian model only in Italy and Greece. Instead, the multipliers exhibit a nonKeynesian sign in Ireland, Portugal and Spain. These results seem to be robust to alternative identification strategies. As far as the monetary policy shock is concerned, we find that it plays an important role, jointly with the other Euro-area wide shocks, as a long-term driver of national unemployment.


2018 - Fiscal Policies in High Debt Euro-Area Countries [Monografia/Trattato scientifico]
Cavallo, Antonella; Dallari, Pietro; Ribba, Antonio
abstract

In this book we aim to measure fiscal policy in the Euro Area by using structural VAR (Vector Autoregression) and Panel VAR methodologies. In particular, we focus on a group of Euro-area countries affected by high public and/or high private debt. We show that the fiscal austerity has exerted significant recessionary effects in Greece, Italy and Portugal, i.e. high public debt countries but, instead, has had expansionary effects on aggregate output in high private debt economies like Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. In this book we also motivate the importance for the Euro Area of a fiscal union for purposes of macroeconomic stabilization and, moreover, study spillovers from German fiscal expansions to the other Eurozone economies. We investigate the effects of fiscal shocks on a wide set of macroeconomic variables and also consider the labour market outcomes of fiscal austerity in a set of Euro-area Member States.


2018 - Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles [Articolo su rivista]
Cavallo, Antonella; Ribba, Antonio
abstract

Assessing the cyclical alignment of national business cycles with the Euro-area one is of great importance in order to guide policy decisions concerning the enlargement of the Euro area. To this end, in this paper we aim to measure the effects of external macroeconomic shocks on business cycles of Central and Eastern European Countries, not yet Euro-area members. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015 and the structural near-VAR methodology, we focus on the effects of Euro-area monetary policy and global oil price shocks on prices and output of the analyzed countries. Results show that business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by domestic shocks in the short run, while monetary policy and oil price shocks play an increasing role in the medium run. Adding domestic fiscal shocks, the overall picture does not change significantly, since fiscal policy turns out to be a minor driver of business cycle fluctuations in CEECs. In the whole, our findings do not support an Euro-area enlargement at short horizons.


2017 - Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles [Working paper]
Cavallo, A.; Ribba, A.
abstract

This paper aims to assess the effects of external macroeconomic shocks on business cycles of Central and Eastern European Countries, not yet Euro-area members. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015 and the structural near-VAR methodology, we focus on the effects of Euro-area monetary policy and global oil price shocks on prices and output of the analyzed countries. Results show that business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by domestic shocks in the short run, while monetary policy and oil price shocks play an increasing role in the medium run. Adding domestic fiscal shocks the overall picture does not change significantly, since fiscal policy turns out to be a minor driver of business cycle fluctuations in CEECs.


2017 - The Macroeconomics Outcome of Oil Shocks in the Small Eurozone Economies [Working paper]
Raduzzi, R.; Ribba, A.
abstract

In this work we provide an analysis over the period 1999 - 2015 of the effects of oil shocks on prices and GDP in a group of small Euro-area economies. The group includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. We use the structural near-VAR methodology and are thus able to model the joint interaction of area-wide macroeconomic variables and national variables. We find that under the EMU oil price shocks have been important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in almost all these countries. Moreover, an increase in oil prices produces significant recessionary effects in all the countries included in the investigation. Thus, although there are different sizes in the responses of output in the investigated countries, our main conclusion is that oil prices (still) matter for European economies.


2017 - What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run? [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

There is a growing consensus on the existence of a positive, long-run relation between inflation and unemployment in the US economy. However, the conclusion that the two variables move in the same direction at low frequencies leaves open the question of the identification of the factors - real or, alternatively, monetary - underlying this co-movement. In this paper we try to shed light on this question by adopting a structural VAR agnostic approach. The important finding is that in the postwar US economy an important role, though not a pre-eminent one, has been played by supply shocks in shaping the long-run evolution of unemployment. This result is robust to alternative choices of the money supply index. Thus, the main conclusion arising from our empirical results is that any monothematic explanation of the long-run relation between inflation and unemployment is difficult to reconcile with US postwar data. A second, important result shown by this investigation concerns the presence of a pronounced liquidity effect in the US economy.


2016 - Productivity Growth Shocks and Unemployment in the Postwar US Economy [Working paper]
Ribba, A.
abstract

In recent years growing attention has been paid to the dynamic interaction between productivity growth and unemployment in the US economy. In this paper we aim to investigate the effects of productivity growth shocks on unemployment, both in the short run and in the medium - long run. We adopt a structural VAR approach and find that, in the last decades, productivity shocks have exerted persistent effects on unemployment. Moreover, these shocks have played an important role in explaining the fluctuations in the unemployment rate at different frequencies. This conclusion seems to be robust to alternative identification strategies of the structural shocks.


2016 - Productivity Growth Shocks and Unemployment in the Postwar US Economy [Capitolo/Saggio]
Ribba, A.
abstract

In recent years growing attention has been paid to the dynamic interaction between productivity growth and unemployment in the US economy. In this article we aim to investigate the effects of productivity growth shocks on unemployment, both in the short run and in the medium - long run. We adopt a structural VAR approach and find that, in the last decades, productivity shocks have exerted an important role in explaining the fluctuations in the unemployment rate at different frequencies. Moreover, this conclusion is robust to alternative identification strategies of the structural shocks.


2015 - Common Macroeconomic Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Euro Area Countries [Articolo su rivista]
Cavallo, Antonella; Ribba, Antonio
abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of common macroeconomic shocks in shaping business cycle fluctuations in a group of Euro-area countries. In particular, by using the structural (near)VAR methodology, we investigate the effect of area-wide shocks, with particular attention to monetary policy shocks. The main conclusion is that: (a) contractionary monetary policy shocks cause similar recessionary effects in all countries; (b) as far as business cycle fluctuations are concerned, there is a separation into two distinct groups of countries, with a first group including the biggest European economies in which business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by common, area-wide shocks and a second one, including Greece, Ireland and Portugal, in which the national shocks play, instead, a much greater role.


2015 - Economic shocks and their effects on unemployment in the euro area periphery under the EMU [Working paper]
Dallari, P.; Ribba, A.
abstract

In this paper we aim to investigate the effects of several types of shocks on unemployment in peripheral European countries under the EMU. We use a structural nearVAR model to account for the supranational conduct of monetary policy on the one hand, and domestic fiscal policy and financial shocks on the other hand. Our main findings are: (i) the unemployment multipliers of government spending shocks are higher than the ones associated with government revenues shocks, and they vary across countries; (ii) instability in the unemployment responses over time is marked, with evidence that a regime shift took place in some countries since 2007; (iii) fiscal and financial shocks are not among the long-term drivers of unemployment, but instead a more important role is played by Euro area-wide shocks, with a pre-eminent role for the common monetary policy shock.


2015 - What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run? [Working paper]
Ribba, A.
abstract

There is a growing consensus on the existence of a positive, long-run relation between inflation and unemployment in the US economy. However, the conclusion that the two variables move in the same direction at low frequencies leaves open the question of the identification of the factors - real or, alternatively, monetary - underlying this co-movement. In this paper we try to shed light on this question by adopting a structural VAR agnostic approach. The main conclusion is that in the postwar US economy an important role has been played by supply shocks in shaping the long-run evolution of unemployment. Thus, it seems that this evidence is at odds with purely monetary explanation of the co-movement between inflation and unemployment.


2014 - Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio; Cavallo, Antonella
abstract

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in this paper we show that this condition is satisfied only for a small number of countries, including France and Italy. Better convergence results for inflation differentials are, instead, found for the USA. Some policy implications are drawn for the Eurozone.


2014 - Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role played by macroeconomic shocks in shaping unemployment fluctuations, both in the USA and in the Euro area, in the recent, European Monetary Union, period. The task is accomplished by estimating a VAR model which jointly considers US and European variables. We identify the structural disturbances through sign restrictions on the dynamic response of variables. Our results show that there are real effects of monetary policy shocks and of non-monetary policy, financial shocks in both economic areas. Moreover, a significant role is also exerted by business cycle, adverse aggregate demand shocks. Not surprisingly, in the last decade an important role has been played by financial shocks.


2013 - Euro area Inflation as a Predictor of National Inflation Rates [Working paper]
Cavallo, A.; Ribba, A.
abstract

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in this paper we show that this condition is satisfied only for a small number of countries, including France and Italy. Better convergence results for inflation differentials are, instead, found for the USA. Some policy implications are drawn for the Eurozone.


2013 - Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade [Working paper]
Ribba, A.
abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role played by macroeconomic shocks in shaping unemployment fluctuations, both in the USA and in the Euro area, in the recent, European Monetary Union, period. The task is accomplished by estimating a VAR model which jointly considers US and European variables. We identify the structural disturbances through sign restrictions on the dynamic response of variables. Our results show that there are real effects of monetary policy shocks and of non-monetary policy, financial shocks in both economic areas. Moreover, a significant role is also exerted by business cycle, adverse aggregate demand shocks. Not surprisingly, in the last decade an important role has been played by financial shocks.


2012 - The Federal Funds Rate and the Conduction of the International Orchestra [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

In the first thirteen years of EMU, monetary policy choices of the European Central Bank (ECB) in setting the short-term interest rate have fol- lowed, systematically, monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve System (Fed). For, despite the presence of variable lags with respect to Fed decisions, turning points of European short-term interest rates have been largely anticipated by movements in the federal funds rate. In this paper we show that, in the context of a bivariate cointegrated system, a clear long-run US dominance emerges. Moreover, the structural analysis reveals that a permanent increase in the federal funds rate causes a permanent one-for-one movement in the eonia rate.


2011 - On Some Neglected Implications of the Fisher Effect [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

Following the lead of Fama [American Economic Review 65 (1975)269–282] and of other influential articles, such as Mishkin [Journal of Monetary Economics 30 (1992) 195–215], it has become standard to interpret the Fisher effect as the ability of short-term interest rate to predict future inflation. However, in this article we demonstrate that by restricting to zero the instantaneous response of expectedinflation to an interest rate shock, one can identify a disturbance that economic agents, according to the Fisherian framework, should evaluate as transitory. An important implication of this result is that short-term nominal interest rates cannot be interpretedas predictors, at least not long-run predictors, of inflation. We illustrate this result with an empirical application to US postwar data.


2011 - The Recent Performance of the Traditional Measure of Core Inflation in G7 Countries [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

This paper undertakes an empirical investigation concerning the performance of the traditional measure of core inflation in recent years. It considers the group of G7 countries and explores both the high-frequency and the low-frequency relations between overall inflation and core inflation. It shows that the traditional core measure, obtained by subtracting from the overall index those components which exhibit high volatility and which are responsible for the short-run variability of inflation, is a reliable indicator of trend inflation for a group of countries including the US, Canada and Japan. Innovation accounting shows that for the three countries the transitory shock, i.e., the total inflation shock, has limited persistence and hence there is a relatively quick convergence of overall inflation to its trend component.


2008 - The Benign Evolution of Inflation in the Recent Decades and the Role of Productivity Growth [Capitolo/Saggio]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

In this chapter we want to investigate, on both theoretical and empirical grounds, the nexus linking inflation and productivity growth. It is worth noticing that some models predict a causal link going from inflation to productivity and hence it is crucial, in the context of the empirical investigation, to clarify the directions of causality characterizing the relationship between these variables. It is also important to carefully distinguish short-run interaction from potential long-run influence running from productivity growth to inflation


2007 - Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979_1995 [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects on the rate of unemployment of the disinflationary policies and other aggregate demand shocks which affected the Italian economy during the period 1979–1995. To this end, a structural cointegrated VAR model is built and the structural disturbances are recovered by imposing a set of short-run, contemporary restrictions. The results show that both short-run and long-run movements in unemployment are influenced by disturbances to aggregate demand, as well as by supply shocks. This evidence seems to be at odds with the predictions of “natural-rate” theories.


2006 - The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980 [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

In this paper, by using a combination of long-run and short-run restrictions, we identify a small structural VECM which includes inflation, unemployment and the federal funds rate and study the dynamic interactions at different frequencies among these variables. Our results show that: (a) in accordance with the traditional view of economic fluctuations, aggregate demand shocks and monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the short run; (b) the permanent supply shock explains the long-run movement of inflation and unemployment. These conclusions are at odds with the prediction of natural-rate models but are consistent with the idea of a propagation mechanism which links productivity shocks to inflation and unemployment at medium and low frequencies. Thus, with respect to some recent studies (e.g. Beyer and Farmer, ECB Working Paper 121, 2002, and Ireland, J Monet Econ 44:279291, 1999), we offer a different interpretation of the low-frequency comovements between inflation and unemployment characterizing the US economy in the last decades.


2005 - Using an Evolving Criterion to Assess the Federal Reserve's Behaviour in Recent Years [Articolo su rivista]
Ferrari, Davide; Ribba, Antonio
abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the behaviour of the Federal Reserve in the Greenspan era by using recently developed neuro-fuzzy techniques. Such models require the assumptions concerning the conduction of monetary policy to be set in the form of flexible rules. Moreover, the approach allows an adaptive model to be built, thus pointing out the role played by the evolution of the monetary policy decision mechanism. Besides the usual set of macroeconomics variables, the input data set includes a stock market indicator. Our results show that the simulated series of the federal funds rate mimics almost perfectly the actual behaviour of the monetary policy instrument.


2003 - Permanent-transitory decompositions and traditional measures of core inflation [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, after defining core inflation, in line with the recent literature, as the long-run component of the rate of change of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), we address the general problem of establishing a set of conditions under which, given the assumption of inflation as an I(1) process, it is possible to identify an indicator of trend inflation. We show that some criteria recently proposed in the literature [Economics Letters 75 (2002) 17] are unnecessarily restrictive. Second, an empirical investigation, for the period 1983-2001, reveals that these conditions are met in the US economy both for the traditional measure of core inflation, which is obtained by subtracting food and energy components from CPI, and for the weighted median of CPI proposed by [Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press for NBER, (1994) 261]. These conclusions hold for a measure of core inflation based on the year-on-year rate of change of the core index and thus we provide some motivation for this choice.


2003 - Short-run and long-run interaction between inflation and unemployment in the USA [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate both the short-run and long-run relationship between inflation and unemployment characterizing the US economy in the last 30 years. To this end a cointegrated structural VAR vs built. Since unemployment does not cause inflation at frequency zero a recursive structure, with inflation ordered first, allows the identification of a permanent and a transitory shock (cf. Ribba, Economics Letters 56, pp. 253-6, 1997). The main conclusions of the investigation are that: (i) in the short run, the existence of a tradeoff induced by the transitory shock is confirmed; (ii) in the long run, the two variables move one-for-one in the same direction driven by a permanent supply shock.


2001 - Vizi e virtù del monetarismo democratico: un promemoria per una discussione sulle politiche economiche e sociali [Articolo su rivista]
Ginzburg, Andrea; Ribba, Antonio
abstract

In questo lavoro gli autori cercano di ricostruire lo schema teorico che ha contribuito a delineare negli ultimi anni le politiche economiche e sociali dei governi di centro-sinistra. La tesi dell'articolo è che l'importante opera di aggiustamento fiscale che ha consentito all'economia italiana di entrare a far parte dell'Unione Monetaria è stata sorretta, interpretata e giustificata da una cornice teorica monetarista. La tesi sostenuta è che tale riferimento non solo non è affatto necessario, ma anzi ostacola la percezione delle politiche di riforma necessarie per promuovere lo sviluppo. Una prospettica teorica alternativa consente una maggiore attenzione sia ai costi sociali del risanamento, sia all'influenza negativa della politica monetaria sulle variabili reali.


2000 - La componente ciclica del prodotto aggregato italiano [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

Date variabili I(1), è possibile ottenere una scomposizione di tali variabili in una componente permanente, I(1), ed una transitoria, I(0). In questo lavoro mostriamo che, dato il vettore Xt = (X1t,X2t)' che include variabili non stazionarie, se le due serie possiedono una relazione di lungo periodo con vettore di cointegrazione (1, -1)' ed, inoltre, il termine di correzione del'errore non causa nel lungo periodo la prima variabile, allora segue che è possibile identificare questa prima variabile quale componente di trend, permanente della seconda. Una applicazione empirica su dati italiani illustra il risultato teorico.


1999 - Studi sul ciclo economico [Monografia/Trattato scientifico]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

L'idea di fondo alla base di questo lavoro è che i sistemi economici basati sulla libera iniziativa imprenditoriale sono affetti da crisi ricorrenti e periodiche. In sostanza, il dinamismo e la propensione alla crescita che tali sistemi manifestano ha come rovescio della medaglia la presenza di un ciclo economico che si esprime mediante movimenti congiunti, tanto nella fase espansiva che nella fase di rallentamento, delle principali variabili macroeconomiche. In questo lavoro viene, in particolare, studiato il problema della identificazione degli shocks, permanenti e transitori, che colpiscono il sistema economico. Questi argomenti sono trattati sia in chiave analitica che mediante applicazione empirica alla economia italiana. Le applicazioni sono basate su stime non parametriche della densità spettrale e su modelli VAR. Emerge con chiarezza l'importanza del ciclo e la conseguente necessità di politiche orientate alla stabilizzazione del sistema economico.


1997 - A note on the equivalence of long-run and short-run identifying restrictions in cointegrated systems [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

In this paper it is shown that, given a bivariate cointegrated system, if the variable which is first in the causal ordering is not caused in the long-run by the second variable, then Blanchard, Quah (1989) and Sims (1980) orthogonalization are equivalent. Since no restriction on the dynamic shape of the variable ordered first is required, we generalized Cochrane´s 1994 result (Cochrane, 1994).


1997 - Ciclo economico, modello lineare-stocastico, forma dello spettro delle variabili macroeconomiche [Articolo su rivista]
Ribba, Antonio
abstract

In questo lavoro si mostra che l'idea di una forma tipica dello spettro, per la gran parte delle variabili macroeconomiche, è discutibile. Si sostiene che, da un punto di vista metodologico, modelli nello spirito di Frisch producono un picco nello spettro alle frequenze associate al ciclo economico, mentre modelli nello spirito di Slutsky implicano uno spettro con picco in zero. Nel lavoro viene fornita una stima della densità spettrale per un'ampia gamma di variabili economiche italiane relative al periodo 1970-1993. Un picco alle frequenze dl ciclo economico emerge con chiarezza.