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Matteo BALISTROCCHI
Ricercatore t.d. art. 24 c. 3 lett. A
Dipartimento di Ingegneria "Enzo Ferrari"
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Pubblicazioni
2022
- Land cover changes since the 19th century detected from historic maps for environmental applications: toward a “CORINE 1800” project?
[Articolo su rivista]
Ranzi, Roberto; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Barontini, Stefano; Peli, Marco.
abstract
The value of cartographic heritage for environmental applications is demonstrated with a test case in the Central Italian Alps. Land cover changes since the early 19th century are detected from sample maps of the Second Military Survey of the Habsburg Empire in Lombardy (1818-1829), available on the portal www.mapire.eu. They are compared with 1954 areal sur-veys and successive land cover classification until 2018. Issues as land use classes homogeni-zation, data vectorization, georeferencing errors are addressed. The dynamics of main land cover classes (woods, bush, meadows, crops) are investigated on sample areas and the potential use of this exercise for hydrological applications is explored. In fact, the impact of the observed natural afforestation on changes in hydrological losses due to evapotranspiration and its influ-ence as a likely cause for the decrease in runoff monitored since 1845 in the Adda river basin and needs to be assessed in a systematic way. The proposed test case can pave the road for a project extended at European scale, a sort of “CORINE 1800 land cover” Geographic Infor-mation System, which could have several environmental, cartographic and socio-economic ap-plications.
2021
- Failure Probability Analysis of Levees Affected by Mammal Bioerosion
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Moretti, Giovanni; Ranzi, Roberto; Orlandini, Stefano
abstract
Burrowing mammals often find in levees a suitable habitat. Unfortunately, mammal dens can significantly compromise the functionality of levees by creating preferential flow paths for flood water seeping through the levee bodies, and by causing ultimately levee failures due to excessive seepage and internal erosion. In fact, many levee failures have been connected to the levee weakening caused by mammal dens. Mammal bioerosion significantly increases the failure probability of levees and the related flood risk in densely populated floodplains. Estimating the failure probability of levees affected by mammal bioerosion is therefore a relevant societal need. In the present study levee safety and failure conditions are estimated by combining a fully bivariate statistical description of peak flow discharge and flood duration with a computationally efficient unsteady seepage flow model. The resulting modeling framework incorporates the natural variability of floods and the essential hydraulic properties of disturbed/undisturbed levees. Model results reveal that the return period of levee failure due to excessive seepage reduces from 100 to 9 yr, namely of –91%, when the mammal den extends for 84% of levee thickness. These results can be used to inform levee design and maintenance programs for the safety of societies living in floodplains worldwide.
2021
- Hydroclimatic Variability and Land Cover Transformations in the Central Italian Alps
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Tomirotti, Massimo; Muraca, Alessandro; Ranzi, Roberto
abstract
Abstract: Extreme streamflow nonstationarity has probably attracted more attention than mean streamflow nonstationarity in the assessment of the impacts of climate change on the water cycle. Nonetheless, a significant decrease in mean streamflow could lead to conditions of scarcity of freshwater in the long-term period, seriously compromising the sustainability of the demand for civil, agricultural, and industrial uses. Regional analyses are useful to better characterize an area’s nonstationarity, since a clear trend at a global scale has not been detected yet. In this article, long-term and high-quality series of streamflow discharges observed in five rivers in the Central Italian Alps, including two multicentury series and two new precipitation and streamflow series not analyzed before, are investigated to statistically characterize individual trends of mean annual runoff volumes. Nonparametric pooled statistics are also introduced to assess the regional trend. Additional climatic and nonclimatic factors, namely, precipitation trends and land cover trans-formations, have also been considered as potential change drivers. Unlike precipitation, runoff volumes show a marked and statistically significant decrease of −1.45 mm/year, which appears to be homogeneous in the region. The land cover transformation analysis presented here revealed extensive woodland expansions of 510 km2 in 2018 out of the 2650 km2 area measured in 1954, representing 38% of the area investigated in this study: this anthropic driver of enhanced hydrologic losses can be recognized as an additional likely cause for the regional runoff volume decrease.
2021
- Land cover changes since the 19th century detected from historic maps for environmental applications: toward a “CORINE 1800” project?
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Ranzi, R; Balistrocchi, M; Barontini, S; Peli, M
abstract
The value of cartographic heritage for environmental applications is demonstrat-ed with a test case in the Central Italian Alps. Land cover changes since the early 19th century are detected from sample maps of the Second Military Survey of the Habsburg Empire in Lombardy (1818-1829), available on the portal www.mapire.eu. They are compared with 1954 areal surveys and successive land cover classification until 2018. Issues as land use classes homogenization, data vectorization, georeferencing errors are addressed. The dynamics of main land cover classes (woods, bush, meadows, crops) are investigated on sample areas and the potential use of this exercise for hydrological applications is explored. In fact, the impact of the observed natural afforestation on changes in hydrological losses due to evapotranspiration and its influence as a likely cause for the decrease in runoff monitored since 1845 in the Adda river basin and needs to be assessed in a systematic way. The proposed test case can pave the road for a project extended at European scale, a sort of “CORINE 1800 land cover” Geographic Information System, which could have several environmental, cartographic and socio-economic applications.
2021
- Long-term hydroclimatic variability and changes in Central Italian Alps
[Abstract in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Tomirotti, Massimo; Muraca, Alessandro; Ranzi, Roberto
abstract
Prolonged and statistically significant decreases in mean riverflows could lead to chronic conditions of freshwater scarcity, seriously compromising the sustainability of the water demand for civil, agricultural and industrial uses. Regional analyses are however still needed to better characterize non-stationarities in different climates, since a clear trend on a global scale does not exist. Herein, long-term and high-quality series of riverflow discharges observed in five rivers in the Central Italian Alps, including two multi-century series, are investigated to statistically characterize individual trends of mean annual riverflows. Non-parametric pooled statistics are also introduced to the assess a regional trend. Climatic and non-climatic factors, namely rainfall trends and land cover transformations, have also been considered as potential change drivers.
2021
- Nutrient delivery efficiency of a combined sewer along a lake challenged by incipient eutrophication
[Articolo su rivista]
Pilotti, M.; Barone, L.; Balistrocchi, M.; Valerio, G.; Milanesi, L.; Nizzoli, D.
abstract
Although sewage diversion outside of a lake's watershed is now ordinary practice in the restoration of eutrophic lakes, often the observed recovery is slower than expected and the internal load from the lake anoxic sediments is identified as a possible reason. However, in the case of combined sewer, the quantification of the residual nutrient load discharged from sewer spillways must also be questioned. In this paper, the diversion efficiency of the sewer system along the east coast of Lake Iseo, a prealpine Italian lake where eutrophication effects are still severe, is investigated. To this purpose, a representative part of the sewer system was modelled by PCSWMM and calibrated by using an extensive series of discharge measurements. Water quality monitoring during wet weather periods reveals that the first flush is common in tributary sewers, whereas it is absent along the main collector. Moreover, flow discharges are strongly affected by infiltration waters, which are controlled by the lake water level. The calibrated model, including infiltration modeling, was used to assess the annual overflow volumes and the nutrient load through a continuous 10-year simulation. Simulations were conducted both with regard to the current conditions and to a climate change scenario. Results show that the discharged residual load is at least 7 times larger than the design value, with the water infiltration contributing to 17% to the overflow volume and that non-structural practices could considerably reduce the overall impact of the sewer. This research thus provides important insight into the potential impact of combined sewer overflows on lacustrine environments and addresses effective mitigation measures in similar contexts.
2020
- Dynamic maps of human exposure to floods based on mobile phone data
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, M.; Metulini, R.; Carpita, M.; Ranzi, R.
abstract
Floods are acknowledged as one of the most serious threats to people's lives and properties worldwide. To mitigate the flood risk, it is possible to act separately on its components: hazard, vulnerability, exposure. Emergency management plans can actually provide effective non-structural practices to decrease both human exposure and vulnerability. Crowding maps depending on characteristic time patterns, herein referred to as dynamic exposure maps, represent a valuable tool to enhance the flood risk management plans. In this paper, the suitability of mobile phone data to derive crowding maps is discussed. A test case is provided by a strongly urbanized area subject to frequent flooding located on the western outskirts of Brescia (northern Italy). Characteristic exposure spatiotemporal patterns and their uncertainties were detected with regard to land cover and calendar period. This novel methodology still deserves verification during real-world flood episodes, even though it appears to be more reliable than crowdsourcing strategies, and seems to have potential to better address real-time rescues and relief supplies.
2020
- Nature-based solutions as climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in Italy
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Grossi, Glovanna; Barontini, Stefano; Berteni, Francesca; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Ranzi, Roberto
abstract
In the last decades, land-use changes and urbanization have enhanced flood risk in urban areas in most of the Italian territory and worldwide. In some cases, climate change is claimed as a factor possibly playing a not negligible role and it may additionally exacerbate the vulnerability of urban areas in the future, according to potential projected changes of rainfall characteristics. To efficiently protect cities and increase their resilience to climate change, nature-based solutions are proposed in several frameworks, including the national adaptation strategy to climate change and the UNESCO World Water Program. These solutions are expected to bring a wider spectrum of benefits, when compared to conventional technology-based solutions, involving some socio-economic aspects beyond the obvious ecological benefit. Thanks to their variety, they are also helpful in planning several distributed interventions instead of a few concentrated ones, which would require more space and are difficult to place in historical settlements. To cope with the increased projected flood risk in urban areas, several Italian regional governments approved laws and standards on so-called ‘hydraulic invariance’ requiring that new urban settlements maintain the outlet flow in the stormwater drainage system at the pre-urbanization value. This is actually in line with the national climate change adaptation strategy and gives a chance to implement also nature-based solutions. A review of case studies of structural and non-structural measures being implemented in Regione Lombardia, together with an assessment of actual trends of extreme rainfall at an hourly scale, is presented.
2020
- Predicting the impact of climate change on urban drainage systems in northwestern Italy by a copula-based approach
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, M.; Grossi, G.
abstract
Study region: Milan, northwestern Italy.
Study focus: The impact of expected trends in storm temporal structures is analyzed with reference to urban drainage systems, featuring catchment areas spanning from 10 ha to 100 ha. A bivariate stochastic model for the derivation of flood frequency is developed, accounting for the seasonality of storm volumes, durations and their mutual dependence structure. Its reliability is verified by comparing it to continuous hydrodynamic simulations. To do so, a 21-year long series observed at Milan-Monviso raingauge was used. Model comparison evidences a satisfactory agreement between models.
New hydrological insights for the region: Although the total annual precipitation is not expected to change, relevant increases in flood frequencies are predicted. Such increases vary between 10-20% and appear to be independent of the return period. Thus, great concerns arise for the existing urban drainage systems located in northwestern Italy, which should basically be unable to face these flood frequency changes. A leading role is played by the intensification of summer and spring storms, both in terms of increase in volumes and decrease in durations. Moreover, changes in the dependence structure have a significant impact when summer storms are considered. Conversely, flood frequency curves are far less sensitive to the storm temporal structures featuring other seasons. These results can be explained by considering the seasonal distribution of storms critical for urban drainage systems.
2020
- Salinity dynamics under sea level rise scenarios in the Red – Thai Binh River delta, Vietnam
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Thi Hien, Nguyen; Hai Yen, Nguyen; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Minh Cat, Vu; Ranzi, Roberto
abstract
Salinity dynamics in the Red – Thai Binh River delta in Vietnam is now becoming a highly concerning issue, for its freshwater is an essential supply for sanitation, agriculture and industry in the North of Vietnam. This study investigates current and future river hydrodynamics and seawater intrusion under sea level rise scenarios, by using 1D model MIKE 11. Simulations indicate an increase trend in maximum salinity concentrations in each river branch from the current condition to 2100 for two sea level rise scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A noticeable intrusion of salinity is expected to occur in the main stream of Red River, while Thai Binh River systems should be affected by a less intense, but still considerable, impact. Two salinity thresholds 1 ‰ and 4 ‰ are also considered for agriculture purposes; their assessment shows a significant salinity increase from baseline year to 2100 RCP8.5.
2020
- Vulnerabilità ed esposizione del patrimonio artistico e architettonico al rischio di inondazione: il caso di Verona
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Ranzi, Roberto; Scala, Barbara
abstract
The contribution proposes a research path concerning the problem of flood management of the Adige river in the city of Verona and, consequently, the solutions implemented in the past to protect the city. The effectiveness of the solutions has been such that it is now possible to attribute to Verona a low flood risk level. The relationship between the city of Verona and the river has always been very strong. The memory of the events that took place with variable intensity can be recognized in the urban transformations, now consolidated, by the numerous plaques affixed on the walls of the city and in the signs made directly on the portals of churches and palaces. After the event of 1882 and its disastrous effects on the city, the municipality undertook studies for new strategies to protect it. Previously, protection from water was achieved by constructing wooden, iron and sandbag structures placed to prevent water from entering the houses. Today, after further operations of hydraulic risk mitigation Verona is classified between the areas with low hydraulic hazard. The cognitive path illustrated has supported the development of non-structural methodologies for the reduction of the hydraulic risk of cultural heritage, in particular, concerning religious heritage. It resulted in a prototype of an intervention plan with the main aim of reducing the vulnerability of the exposed elements and, if possible, cancelling it. The need to work on vulnerability derives from the fact that the exposure, understood as the physical presence of the building in the hydraulic hazard area, cannot be changed. The time between the prediction and the occurrence of the phenomenon makes the prevention plan useful and feasible after establishing an order of actions, identifying the premises for possible movement and safety of the asset and educating the operators.
2019
- Analysis of the residual nutrient load from a combined sewer system in a watershed of a deep Italian lake
[Articolo su rivista]
Barone, Laura; Pilotti, Marco; Valerio, Giulia; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Milanesi, Luca; Chapra, Steven C.; Nizzoli, Daniele
abstract
2019
- Copula-based modeling of earthen levee breach due to overtopping
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, M.; Moretti, G.; Orlandini, S.; Ranzi, R.
abstract
The level of protection offered by an earthen levee is typically described in terms of flood water level that the levee is capable of containing. If a larger flood occurs, floodwaters exceed the height of the levee and flow over its crest. As the water passes over the top, it may erode the levee, worsening the flooding and potentially causing a breach. In order to determine the annual probability that an earthen levee breaches due to overtopping, multiple flood characteristics such as peak flood water level, or related peak flow discharge, and flood duration need to be characterized statistically by using multivariate statistics. In this study, critical conditions for levee failure are described by using a Clayton copula relating peak flow discharge to flood duration. The obtained model is tested over a real river site located along the Panaro River, in northern Italy, where a 52-year time series of hourly flow discharge and a normal flow rating curve are available. The developed model makes it possible to delimitate the levee failure region within the population of flood events and to statistically describe earthen levee breach due to overtopping. Breach probability is found to be underestimated when the statistical association between peak flow discharge and flood duration is neglected. The proposed copula-based model is therefore important to support the design and construction of earthen levees, and to identify the actions needed to save lives and property when a flood exceeding the levee design limit occurs.
2019
- Geomorphological changes of the Adige river from the Claricini map (1847) and the impact on flood routing
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Ranzi, Roberto; Matteo, Rebuschi; Gentilin, Fulvio; Balistrocchi, Matteo
abstract
2019
- Measuring and modelling the nutrients residual load from the combined sewer of the eastern shore of Lake Iseo
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Laura, Barone; Pilotti, Marco; Murgioni, Manuel; Valerio, Giulia; Steven Christopher, Chapra; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Milanesi, Luca
abstract
2018
- Atti del 36º Convegno nazionale di idraulica e costruzioni idrauliche. Ingegneria delle acque: scienza e tecnologia al servizio della comunità
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Ranzi, Roberto; Stefano, Orlandini; Baldassare, Bacchi
abstract
• Le prestazioni della cassa di laminazione sul Panaro sono state stimate tramite approcci diversi.
• Una serie di portate lunga 52 anni ha consentito di condurre una simulazione in continuo.
• Un metodo di stima stocastico è stato derivato da una distribuzione congiunta di colmi e volumi.
• Partendo dalle curve di riduzione delle portate sono stati ricavate piene di progetto.
• Il confronto tra simulazioni e metodo probabilistico ha evidenziato una soddisfacente concordanza.
2018
- Flood Routing Efficiency Assessment: an Approach Using Bivariate Copulas
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Ranzi, Roberto; Orlandini, Stefano; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
Flood control reservoirs are widely recognized as effective structural practices in order to mitigate the flood risk in natural watersheds. Nevertheless, the flood frequency distribution in the downstream reach is strongly affected by a certain number of characteristics of the upstream flood hydrographs. When a direct statistical method is utilized, a multivariate approach should therefore be utilized to accurately assess reservoir performances. In this paper, a flood frequency distribution of the routed flow discharge is derived from a bivariate joint distribution function ofpeak flow discharges and flood volumes of hydrographs entering the reservoir. Such a joint distribution is constructed by using the copula approach. Reservoir performances are also exploited to categorize event severity and to estimate their bivariate return periods. The method is applied to a real-world case study (Sant’Anna reservoir, Panaro River, northern Italy), and its reliability is verified through continuous simulations. Bearing in mind the popularity that design event methods still have in practical engineering, a final evaluation of the performance assessment achievable by simulations of synthetic hydrographs derived from a flood reduction curve is finally proposed.
2018
- Rainfall stochastic modelling through copulas in a climate change perspective
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
2017
- Copula-Based Modeling of Flood Control Reservoirs
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, M.; Orlandini, S.; Ranzi, R.; Bacchi, and B.
abstract
Copulas are shown in this paper to provide an effective strategy to describe the statistical dependence between peak flow discharge and flood volume featuring hydrographs forcing a flood control reservoir. A 52 year time series of flow discharges observed in the Panaro River (Northern Italian Apennines) is used to fit an event-based bivariate distribution and to support time-continuous modeling of a flood control reservoir, located online along the river system. With regard to reservoir performances, a method aimed at estimating the bivariate return period is analytically developed, by exploiting the derived distribution theory and a simplified routing scheme. In this approach, the return period is that of the peak flow discharge released downstream from the reservoir. Therefore, in order to verify the reliability of the proposed method, a nonparametric version of its frequency distribution is assessed by means of continuous simulation statistics. Copula derived and nonparametric distributions of the downstream peak flow discharge are found to be in satisfactory agreement. Finally, a comparison of bivariate return period estimates carried out by using alternative approaches is illustrated.
2017
- Derivation of flood frequency curves through a bivariate rainfall distribution based on copula functions: application to an urban catchment in northern Italy’s climate
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
The utilization of continuous approaches, namely analytical-probabilistic methods, has often been advocated for hydraulic device sizing, in order to overcome some deficiencies of the design event method. In the analytical distribution derivation, however, strong simplifying hypotheses are usually adopted. Rainfall depth and duration independency is the most unrealistic, even if it usually leads to satisfactory agreements between derived and benchmarking distributions. The reason can lie in drawbacks related to conventional assessment techniques of multivariate rainfall distributions. Copula functions recently provided a significant improvement in statistical inference capabilities and greatly simplified the distribution assessment. Nonetheless, the generalization of the return period concept, well defined in the univariate case, to multivariate cases has not found a blanket solution yet. Effective estimate methods can, however, be developed for the design and performance assessment of specific hydraulic devices. With regard to urban catchment applications, a criterion to derive flood frequency curves from a rainfall volume and duration distribution is herein proposed. Further, a method to estimate the return period of bivariate rainfall events based on a device-targeted approach is developed. Hydrologic simulations are conducted to support model reliability through a test case, featuring a northern Italian rainfall regime.
2016
- Dimensionamento dei serbatoi di laminazione e delle casse di espansione
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2016
- Interpretazione della variabilità spaziale delle piogge intense tramite funzioni copula
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
2016
- Raccolta e riutilizzo delle acque meteoriche in ambito urbano: valutazioni tecnico economiche di un intervento di riqualificazione
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Zanoletti, Alessandra; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2015
- Analisi e sintesi statistica di variabili idrologiche attraverso funzioni copula
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2014
- Analisi della variabilità spaziale delle precipitazioni intense in ambienti montani: una decade di monitoraggio
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Pecora, S.; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
2014
- Multivariate statistical analysis of flood variables by copulas: two italian case studies
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Ranzi, Roberto; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
Multivariate statistics are important to determine the flood hydrograph for the design of hydraulic structures and for the hydraulic risk assessment. In the last decade, the copula approach has been investigated in hydrological practice to assess the design flood hydrograph in terms of flood peak, volume and duration. In this paper, the copula approach is exploited to perform pair analyses of these three random variables for two Italian watersheds, in the Apennine and the Alps respectively. The criterion to separate continuous flow series into independent events is discussed along with its implications on the dependence structure. The goodness-of-fits of the proposed copulas are then assessed by non-parametric tests. Marginal distributions to derive joint distributions are briefly suggested. The possibility of generating flood events according to the proposed model and potential applications to hydraulic structure design and flood management are finally examined.
2013
- Deriving a practical analytical-probabilistic method to size flood routing reservoirs
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
In the engineering practice routing reservoir sizing is commonly performed by using the design storm method, although its effectiveness has been debated for a long time. Conversely, continuous simulations and direct statistical analyses of recorded hydrographs are considered more reliable and comprehensive, but are indeed complex or seldom practicable. In this paper a handier tool is provided by the analytical-probabilistic approach to construct probability functions of peak discharges issuing from natural watersheds or routed through on-line and off-line reservoirs. A simplified routing scheme and a rainfall-runoff model based on a few essential hydrological parameters were implemented. To validate the proposed design methodology, on-line and off-line routing reservoirs were firstly sized by means of a conventional design storm method for a test watershed located in northern Italy. Their routing efficiencies were then estimated by both analytical-probabilistic models and benchmarking continuous simulations. Bearing in mind practical design purposes, adopted models evidenced a satisfactory consistency.
2013
- Vasche di laminazione confronto tra metodi tradizionali e metodi probabilistici per il loro progetto/verifica
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Bacchi, B; Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, G
abstract
2012
- Deriving a practical analytical-probabilistic method to size flood routing reservoirs
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2012
- PROGETTO DI VASCHE DI LAMINAZIONE IN LINEA E FUORI LINEA MEDIANTE APPROCCI CONTINUI
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, G; Bacchi, B
abstract
2012
- STRUMENTI E METODI DI RISANAMENTO IDRAULICO-AMBIENTALE PER LA FRANCIACORTA (BS)
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Sanzeni, D; Olivieri, M; Balistrocchi, M; Bacchi, B
abstract
2011
- Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables by a trivariate copula function
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2011
- Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, M.; Bacchi, B.
abstract
In many hydrological models, such as those derived by analytical probabilistic methods, the precipitation stochastic process is represented by means of individual storm random variables which are supposed to be independent of each other. However, several proposals were advanced to develop joint probability distributions able to account for the observed statistical dependence. The traditional technique of the multivariate statistics is nevertheless affected by several drawbacks, whose most evident issue is the unavoidable subordination of the dependence structure assessment to the marginal distribution fitting. Conversely, the copula approach can overcome this limitation, by dividing the problem in two distinct parts. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit tests were recently made available and a significant improvement in the function selection reliability has been achieved. Herein the dependence structure of the rainfall event volume, the wet weather duration and the interevent time is assessed and verified by test statistics with respect to three long time series recorded in different Italian climates. Paired analyses revealed a non negligible dependence between volume and duration, while the interevent period proved to be substantially independent of the other variables. A unique copula model seems to be suitable for representing this dependence structure, despite the sensitivity demonstrated by its parameter towards the threshold utilized in the procedure for extracting the independent events. The joint probability function was finally developed by adopting a Weibull model for the marginal distributions.
2010
- A semiprobabilistic approach for the design of a flood control reservoir
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Grossi, Giovanna; Balistrocchi, Matteo
abstract
2010
- Indici di efficienza per la vasche di prima pioggia
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Grossi, Giovanna; Balistrocchi, Matteo
abstract
2010
- Rainfall event variables: dependence analysis by way of copulas
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, B; Balistrocchi, M
abstract
2010
- Stima delle prestazioni di una vasca di laminazione: confronto tra simulazioni continue e metodi analitico-probabilistici
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Bacchi, Baldassare; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
I criteri di dimensionamento delle vasche di laminazione elaborati secondo
l’approccio dell’evento critico presentano alcuni limiti. Il più rilevante di essi
risiede nella difficoltà di tenere in considerazione la naturale variabilità delle piene
e la loro successione temporale. Le simulazioni di lungo periodo ed i metodi
analitico-probabilistici invece possono ovviare efficacemente a questo
inconveniente, pervenendo così a stime dei tempi di ritorno delle portate al colmo
concettualmente corrette. In riferimento ad un caso di studio, rappresentato da un
dispositivo d’invaso progettato per proteggere la città di Brescia dalle piene del
torrente Garza, sono state ricavate mediante questi due diversi approcci le
distribuzioni di frequenza delle portate di picco prodotte dal bacino naturale e
quelle laminate. Il loro confronto ha evidenziato alcuni limiti del secondo metodo,
che tuttavia sembra meritevole di ulteriore approfondimento.
2009
- A search for model parsimony in a real time flood forecasting system
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Grossi, G; Balistrocchi, M
abstract
2009
- A semiprobabilistic approach for the design of river routing reservoirs
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, B; Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, G
abstract
2009
- An analytical probabilistic model of the quality efficiency of a sewer tank
[Articolo su rivista]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
The assessment of the efficiency of a storm water storage facility devoted to the
sewer overflow control in urban areas strictly depends on the ability to model the main features of the rainfall-runoff routing process and the related wet weather pollution delivery. In this paper the possibility of applying the analytical probabilistic approach for developing a tank design method, whose potentials are similar to the continuous simulations, is proved. In the model derivation the quality issues of such devices were implemented. The formulation is based on a Weibull probabilistic model of the main characteristics of the rainfall process and on a power law describing the relationship between the dimensionless storm water cumulative runoff volume and the dimensionless cumulative pollutograph. Following this approach, efficiency indexes were established. The proposed model was verified by comparing its results to those obtained by continuous
simulations; satisfactory agreement is shown for the proposed efficiency indexes.
2009
- Approccio semiprobabilistico per la progettazione di vasche di laminazione
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Grossi, Giovanna; Balistrocchi, Matteo
abstract
2009
- Copula approach to the statistical dependence of the rainfall event variables
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2009
- Il dimensionamento dei collettori fognari: metodologie tradizionali e semiprobabilistiche
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, Matteo
abstract
2009
- Interazioni tra reticolo idrografico e fognature nei comuni della Franciacorta
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, M; Olivieri, M; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2009
- Interazioni tra reticolo idrografico e fognature nei comuni della franciacorta (BS)
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, M; Olivieri, M; Bacchi, B
abstract
2009
- Stima dell'efficienza di un volume di cattura dedicato al controllo degli scarichi
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
Supplemento alla Rivista bimestrale dell'Associazione Idrotecnica Italiana "L'ACQUA" n.4/2009
2009
- Sull'efficienza delle vasche di prima pioggia
[Articolo su rivista]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
2008
- Assessment of long term efficiency of CSO capture tanks by semiprobabilistic methods
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2008
- Assessment of the long term efficiency of CSO capture tanks by semiprobabilistic methods
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2008
- Caratterizzazione della variabilità spaziale delle piogge intense per il bacino del fiume Taro
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Grossi, Giovanna; Balistrocchi, M.
abstract
Articolo esteso su CD
2008
- Metodi probabilistici di progetto di invasi a servizio dei sistemi fognari
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Baldassare, Bacchi; Giovanna, Grossi; Balistrocchi, M.
abstract
Collana Ambiente
2008
- Proposal of a semi-probabilistic approach for storage facility design
[Articolo su rivista]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
Storage facilities are key devices in mitigating the urban drainage impact on receiving water bodies, but their design is
still affected by high uncertainty. The analytical-probabilistic approach has recently raised interest, because the
facility performances are directly related to probability. Starting from statistically independent storm events,
distributions of the meteorological variables must be fitted. Rainfall series, recorded in three Italian raingauges,
were examined for appraising two main concerns: the choice of proper probability distributions for rainfall volume
and the sample sensitivity with respect to the analysis criterion. The analytical derivation of the model is then finally
discussed.
2008
- Rainfall input spatial characterization for hydrologic simulation
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Grossi, G; Balistrocchi, M
abstract
2007
- Analisi dei criteri di gestione delle vasche di prima pioggia mediante metodi innovativi
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna; Bacchi, Baldassare
abstract
2007
- Un approccio semiprobabilistico alla progettazione di vasche a servizio delle reti di drenaggio urbano
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
2006
- Cap.4 : Sistemi di fognatura e acque meteoriche di dilavamento
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, Giovanna; Papiri, S; Todeschini, S.
abstract
2006
- Controllo degli scarichi mediante vasche di prima pioggia: verifica di un metodo semiprobabilistico
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, Giovanna
abstract
Articolo per esteso su Cd allegato
2006
- Sistemi di fognatura e acque meteoriche di dilavamento
[Capitolo/Saggio]
Bacchi, B; Balistrocchi, M; Grossi, G; Papiri, S; Todeschini, S
abstract
2005
- A semi-probabilistic approach for the design of detention storage facilities
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, B; Grossi, G; Balistrocchi, M; Ranzi, R
abstract
2005
- Interevent time definition for water quality volume assessment
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Balistrocchi, M; Bacchi, B; Grossi, G
abstract
2005
- Progetto di invasi a servizio di reti di drenaggio urbano: un approccio basato sul concetto di rischio
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Bacchi, Baldassare; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Grossi, Giovanna; Ranzi, Roberto
abstract
2004
- Water quality effects of future urbanization: diffuse pollution loads estimates and control in Mantua's lakes
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Muraca, Alessandro; Becchi, G.; Balistrocchi, M.
abstract
2002
- Idro Lake reservoir: analysis of six years of management
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Muraca, A; Balistrocchi, M
abstract
2002
- Urban Runoff Management in high concentration industrial sites: a case study
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Muraca, Alessandro; Balistrocchi, M.
abstract
2002
- Water quality effects of future urbanization: diffuse pollution load estimates and control in Mantua’s lakes
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Muraca, A; Becchi, G; Balistrocchi, M
abstract
2001
- Scarichi fognari e qualità delle acque in Val Trompia: recenti esperienze
[Relazione in Atti di Convegno]
Muraca, Alessandro; Balistrocchi, Matteo; Becchi, Giovanni; Orlandi, P.
abstract