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DOCENTE A CONTRATTO presso: Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi"

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2020 - Birds of a Feather Flock Together: The Inclusive Effect of Similarity Patterns in Equity Crowdfunding [Articolo su rivista]
Venturelli, Valeria; Pedrazzoli, Alessia; Gallo, Giovanni

Crowdfunding is helping to drive financial inclusion by expanding the availability of funds to traditionally excluded and underserved groups of individuals, such as ethnic minority and female entrepreneurs. This study verifies how ethnic and gender similarity between investor and entrepreneur can affect the invested amount in an equity crowdfunding campaign. Using an integrated approach with linear regression and Shapley decomposition, we analyze 8600 investments made by 5996 unique personal shareholder investors in 81 equity crowdfunding campaigns. Results show that similarity patterns seem to significantly influence the amount invested in a campaign but their effects change according to investor’s gender and ethnic origin. In fact, even if female investors give a higher amount to men-led companies, their preference changes if the company is run by a female founder belonging to the same ethnic minority group. Results emphasize equity crowdfunding’s potential as a tool for the financial inclusion of ethnic minority groups of investors and entrepreneurs.

2020 - Buy Flexible, Pay More: The Role of Temporary Contracts on Wage Inequality [Articolo su rivista]
Albanese, Andrea; Gallo, Giovanni

2020 - Drawing policy suggestions to fight Covid-19 from hardly reliable data. A machine-learning contribution on lockdowns analysis. [Working paper]
Bonacini, L; Gallo, G; Patriarca, F

2020 - Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures [Articolo su rivista]
Bonacini, L.; Gallo, G.; Patriarca, F.

Identifying structural breaks in the dynamics of COVID-19 contagion is crucial to promptly assess policies and evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown measures. However, official data record infections after a critical and unpredictable delay. Moreover, people react to the health risks of the virus and also anticipate lockdowns. All of this makes it complex to quickly and accurately detect changing patterns in the virus’s infection dynamic. We propose a machine learning procedure to identify structural breaks in the time series of COVID-19 cases. We consider the case of Italy, an early-affected country that was unprepared for the situation, and detect the dates of structural breaks induced by three national lockdowns so as to evaluate their effects and identify some related policy issues. The strong but significantly delayed effect of the first lockdown suggests a relevant announcement effect. In contrast, the last lockdown had significantly less impact. The proposed methodology is robust as a real-time procedure for early detection of the structural breaks: the impact of the first two lockdowns could have been correctly identified just the day after they actually occurred.

2020 - Like a stone thrown into a pond – poverty contrast of an emporium of solidarity [Articolo su rivista]
Ranuzzini, Marco; Gallo, Giovanni

This paper highlights to what extent an emporium of solidarity may affect poverty conditions of its recipients, and whether it generates net social benefits to different actors involved.

2020 - The scars of scarcity in the short run: an empirical investigation across Europe [Articolo su rivista]
Baldini, Massimo; Gallo, Giovanni; Torricelli, Costanza

This paper tests whether a temporary experience of income scarcity in the recent past affects the current perception of financial fragility, and whether this effect varies according to the welfare system of the country of residence. Using EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Condition) longitudinal data in 2010–2013 period, two main results emerge. First, individuals who transited out of a short spell of scarcity tend to record higher financial fragility (as measured by the indicator “ability to make ends meet”) than those who never experienced it, even after controlling for the current level of household income. When a more objective measure of financial fragility is taken (financial burden of total housing costs), the effect is weaker and disappears once current income is accounted for. Second, the scarcity effect on perceived financial fragility differs according to the welfare system, whereby more generous welfare states (i.e. with greater incidence of social expenditure on GDP) appear to reduce the persistence of the effects of past income shocks on current well-being, while the level of targeting is not relevant. These results, which are robust to various robustness checks, support the idea that individual well-being is a multidimensional phenomenon not limited to more objective components such as income or wealth. Our results are in favour of a welfare system which ensures a more generous provision of services and does not focus only on the poorest section of a society.

2020 - Widening the gap. The influence of inner areas in the income inequality in Italy [Articolo su rivista]
Gallo, Giovanni; Pagliacci, Francesco

2020 - Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19 [Articolo su rivista]
Bonacini, Luca; Gallo, Giovanni; Scicchitano, Sergio

2019 - Beneficiari e spesa del Reddito di Cittadinanza: Una stima della misura finale [Working paper]
Gallo, Giovanni; Sacchi, Stefano

Il nuovo Reddito di cittadinanza sarà realtà da aprile 2019. Questo policy brief fornisce alcune stime su platea potenziale dei beneficiari e spesa della nuova misura nazionale di contrasto alla povertà, e mostra come queste stime potrebbero variare con l’approvazione di alcuni emendamenti di rilievo in fase di definizione della misura finale.

2019 - Capitolo 12. Reddito di Cittadinanza: caratteristiche, beneficiari e prime valutazioni [Capitolo/Saggio]
Gallo, Giovanni; Raitano, Michele

In questo capitolo si presentano alcune riflessioni sui pregi e sulle criticità del Reddito di Cittadinanza (di seguito RdC). Nel paragrafo 2 si descrivono le caratteristiche di tale strumento, in relazione ai requisiti di accesso, di condizionalità e alla formula di calcolo della prestazione. Nello stesso paragrafo si richiamano sinteticamente anche i principali aspetti controversi del disegno del Rdc rilevati da alcuni studiosi, in particolare con riferimento all’applicazione, per il calcolo dell’importo, di una scala di equivalenza diversa da quella ISEE e che sfavorisce, in termini relativi, i nuclei familiari più numerosi. Nel paragrafo 3 si presentano i dati più aggiornati forniti dall’INPS sul numero e sulle caratteristiche dei beneficiari del RdC e si riportano le stime preliminari condotte dall’Ufficio Parlamentare di Bilancio (UPB) sull’effetto macroeconomico dell’erogazione di tale trasferimento. Successivamente, si presentano i risultati di alcune micro-simulazioni originali atte ad indagare l’impatto dell’introduzione del RdC sui principali indicatori di povertà e diseguaglianza (paragrafo 4) e gli effetti sugli indicatori distributivi e sul bilancio pubblico che deriverebbero se il legislatore intervenisse per modificare la scala d’equivalenza alla base della formula di calcolo del trasferimento, in modo da ridurre lo svantaggio relativo a discapito delle famiglie numerose (paragrafo 5). Infine, il paragrafo 6 conclude.

2019 - Il Reddito di Cittadinanza: Cosa dicono finora i dati [Articolo su rivista]
Baldini, Massimo; Gallo, Giovanni

2019 - La progettazione personalizzata nelle nuove misure di contrasto alla povertà (RES-REI) in Emilia-Romagna: Ottanta studi di caso [Articolo su rivista]
Ambrosi, Agnese; GALLO, GIOVANNI; Ghetti, Valentina

2019 - Le politiche di contrasto alla povertà [Articolo su rivista]
GALLO, GIOVANNI; Luppi, Matteo

2019 - Le politiche per l’assistenza: il Reddito di cittadinanza [Working paper]
Baldini, M.; Gallo, G.; Lusignoli, L.; Toso, S.

During 2018 and the first part of 2019 the Italian debate on public expenditure for cash transfers has been dominated by two arguments: “Quota 100” for pensions and the Citizen’s Income (CI) for social assistance. This chapter is entirely devoted to the CI, which represents a turning point in policies against poverty in Italy, with positive aspects and some problems. After section 2, which updates the indexes on poverty and inequality in Italy, section 3 traces the history and the main contents of CI, formulating also some proposals to improve its design. Then a discussion of the quantitative effects of CI on poverty follows. Finally, section 5 deepens the relationship between poverty and the labour market, and the role that the CI could play in this context.

2019 - Quali evidenze e raccomandazioni dal rapporto Oxfam sulle disuguaglianze? Un approfondimento per l’Italia [Articolo su rivista]

2019 - Reddito di cittadinanza e disponibilità a trasferirsi per lavoro [Articolo su rivista]
GALLO, GIOVANNI; Scicchitano, Sergio

2019 - Regional Support for the National Government: Joint Effects of Minimum Income Schemes in Italy [Articolo su rivista]
Gallo, Giovanni

2018 - Assistenza e ammortizzatori sociali [Capitolo/Saggio]
Gallo, Giovanni; Toso, Stefano

Gallo e Toso propongono, nel capitolo 4, una panoramica sulle novità riguardanti le politiche di contrasto della povertà. Una particolare attenzione viene data nel capitolo di quest’anno alle misure nazionali e regionali di reddito minimo attualmente vigenti nel nostro paese, visto che il 2018 è l’anno in cui l’Italia si dota per la prima volta di una misura di sostegno del reddito di stampo universalistico, ossia accessibile a tutte le famiglie povere in quanto tali. Dallo scorso 1o luglio il Reddito d’inclusione (Rei), introdotto con il d.lgs. n. 147 del 15 settembre 2017, ha infatti perso i requisiti categoriali previsti originariamente, come la presenza in famiglia di almeno un minore o di un disabile. Ciò corona un percorso di riforma delle politiche per l’assistenza avviato ai primi del decennio e portato avanti da diversi governi. Il capitolo propone una stima della platea e del costo del Rei. Diverse regioni hanno deciso di introdurre proprie misure di sostegno al reddito tra il 2015 e il 2017. Il capitolo ne presenta nel dettaglio le caratteristiche e le strategie adottate per estendere la platea potenziale della misura nazionale o aumentarne il trasferimento economico. Il Movimento 5 Stelle da tempo propone una misura, il Reddito di cittadinanza, molto più ambiziosa dello schema nazionale di reddito minimo. Il capitolo discute le principali caratteristiche, gli aspetti positivi e le potenziali criticità della politica che potrebbe rimpiazzare il neonato Rei. Infine, si fornisce un commento ai recenti provvedimenti in tema di ammortizzatori sociali.

2018 - Da politiche di reddito minimo a sistemi integrati nel contrasto alla povertà? Un’analisi di dieci paesi europei [Articolo su rivista]
Baldini, Massimo; Busilacchi, Gianluca; Gallo, Giovanni

L’articolo presenta una comparazione delle politiche di reddito minimo in alcuni paesi europei focalizzandosi sulle differenze nell'accesso, sui livelli di condizionalità previsti, sulla generosità e sulle innovazioni introdotte negli ultimi anni, in particolare nel passaggio da singole misure di reddito minimo a sistemi integrati di vari trasferimenti monetari. La tesi sostenuta è che nel contrasto alla povertà si stia passando a misure di reddito minimo fortemente condizionate, ma sempre più integrate a strumenti di altra natura. Con l’ausilio dei dati Eu-Silc è stato valutato in che modo i sistemi di trasferimento hanno reagito alla crisi economica, mettendo in luce le differenze esistenti tra alcuni paesi europei in termini di composizione della spesa e di efficacia nel contrasto alla povertà. I risultati mostrano grandi differenze tra i diversi paesi, sia dal punto di vista strutturale sia come risposta agli effetti prodotti dalla crisi. Ciò che emerge, in generale, è il ruolo marginale assunto dai trasferimenti finalizzati al contrasto della povertà e dell’esclusione sociale in senso stretto, da cui l’importanza di una visione allargata a un insieme più ampio di trasferimenti.

2018 - Individual Heterogeneity and Pension Choices: Evidence from Italy [Articolo su rivista]
Gallo, Giovanni; Torricelli, Costanza; Van Soest, Arthur

The 2007 Italian pension reform allowed transferring future severance pay contributions into a pension fund. Although this was accompanied by an information campaign advising employees to make the transfer, only a minority of them did so. We analyze the heterogeneity in employees’ choices using micro panel data from the Bank of Italy household survey. Two are the main findings. First, the decision to transfer and pension fund participation after the reform are more likely for more (financially) educated and older individuals, with high household income and wealth, and less likely for female employees, in the South, and in small firms. Second, framing the analysis within the Elaboration Likelihood Model highlights that the cognitive processes underlying the decision on pension fund participation may be quite different. The decision consciousness is lower for employees working in small firms, where employers have an incentive to stimulate workers to deny the transfer.

2018 - Market-Book Ratios of European Banks: What Does Explain the Structural Fall? [Working paper]
Ferretti, R.; Gallo, G.; Landi, A.; Venturelli, V.

In the years since the outbreak of the crisis, financial markets have persistently reduced the market value of European banks, as consequence of macroeconomic, regulatory and structural factors. Even if these factors affected the whole European banking industry, differences characterized market evaluation of banks along country, size and business mix profiles. Following the extant literature on bank market valuation, our paper tests for the difference between market to book ratios of the large European banks, using three blocks of indicators typically affecting the banks’ market value. To verify our research question, we first regress the market to book ratio over performance measures and risk indicators. Then, we verify whether bank business size and composition affect bank market valuation. Lastly we evaluate the relevance of country context variables, by considering both macroeconomic and banking structure indicators. Our panel consists of all large publicly traded bank holding companies at European level. Large publicly traded banks are all listed banks with consolidated assets exceeding 50 billion euro in 2015. The results highlight that the market considers the fundamental variables (current performance and volatility) as the main factors affecting the evaluation process. Furthermore a significant share of variability in banks’ market-book values is explained by country context variables.

2017 - Essere NEET è una scelta? Giovani in attesa del proprio tempo [Capitolo/Saggio]
Gallo, Giovanni

Utilizzando i dati EU-SILC, Giovanni Gallo analizza nel contributo ‘Essere NEET è una scelta? Giovani in attesa del proprio tempo’ le caratteristiche dei giovani che non studiano e non lavorano, partendo dai principali modelli sul mercato del lavoro. L’autore si chiede se l’essere NEET possa configurarsi come una scelta ‘adattiva’ dell’individuo che, riconoscendo le difficoltà correnti, decide di attendere un momento più favorevole per attivarsi. Particolarmente interessante il fatto di considerare il reddito familiare del giovane nella scelta di restare inattivo.

2017 - Gli effetti di un sisma: il caso Valle del Belìce [Articolo su rivista]
Gallo, Giovanni; Pisciotta, Antonio

La presente analisi mira a valutare l’impatto di lungo periodo di un terremoto. Il caso di studio qui utilizzato è il terremoto che ha devastato la Valle del Belìce nel gennaio 1968. Per far questo, una comparazione sull’andamento di alcune variabili demografiche e socio-economiche è stata svolta tra l’area del cratere e le aggregazioni territoriali (province di Trapani, Palermo e Agrigento, regione Sicilia) all’interno delle quali la Valle del Belìce si colloca. I risultati evidenziano che il sisma ha avuto gravi ripercussioni nei territori colpiti dal punto di vista sia demografico che economico, che non accennano a scomparire a più di quarant’anni dal disastro naturale. In particolare, nonostante i meccanismi di ricostruzione e i fondi di sviluppo attivati, i comuni del cratere mostrano una popolazione in forte calo e sempre più anziana, un’incapacità di sviluppare nel settore privato attività industriali e di servizi e bassi livelli di reddito familiare.

2017 - Individual Heterogeneity and Pension Choices How to Communicate an Effective Message? [Working paper]
Gallo, G.; Torricelli, C.; van Soest, A.

We use the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to explain how communication influences pension choices in a heterogeneous population. We exploit the 2007 Italian reform that allowed transferring future severance pay contributions into a pension fund and was accompanied by an information campaign with a clear message. According to ELM, individuals follow either a “central route” or a “peripheral route” depending on their motivation and ability to process, and eventually change or retain their initial attitude. Based on data from the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth, we find that not only financial literacy plays a relevant role in the employees’ elaboration process, but also the individual’s comprehension of the specific choice object, the personal relevance of the decision, cognitive skills, and contextual elements (e.g. unions, employer pressure). These considerations have policy implications for the effectiveness of information messages in the pension domain.

2017 - Past Income Scarcity and Current Perception of Financial Fragility [Working paper]
Baldini, M.; Gallo, G.; Torricelli, C.

The aim of this paper is to test whether a temporary experience of income scarcity in the recent past affects the individual’s assessment of financial fragility over time. Using EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Condition) longitudinal data in 2010-2013 period, our results highlight that individuals who transited out of a short spell of scarcity tend to record a lower subjective ability to make ends meet than those who never experienced it during the reference period, even after two years and controlling for the current level of household income. When a more objective measure of household financial health is taken, the effect is weaker and disappears when current income is accounted for. Our results, which are robust to various robustness checks, have implications for public policies since they question the idea that helping people to leave an objective condition of income scarcity is enough to address poverty and social exclusion.

2016 - Individual heterogeneity and pension choices: How to communicate an effective message? [Working paper]
Gallo, G.; Torricelli, C.; Van Soest, A.

We use the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to explain how communication influences the heterogeneity in pension choices. To this end we exploit the 2007 Italian reform that allowed transferring future severance pay contributions into a pension fund and was accompanied by an information campaign with a clear message. According to ELM, individuals follow either a “central route” or a “peripheral route” depending on their motivation and ability to think, and eventually change or retain their initial attitude. Based on Logit models and data from the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth, we find that the decision to transfer the severance pay into a pension fund was taken by more educated and older individuals, with high household income. Since the reform was mainly directed at low income and younger individuals, this result suggest that the information campaign was not very effective. Moreover, our findings show that generic financial literacy does not significantly affect decision consciousness, pointing at a more relevant role in the elaboration process for: the individual’s comprehension of the specific choice object (pension funds), cognitive skills, and influential contextual factors (i.e., unions and employer’s pressure).

2016 - L'importo del contributo economico [Capitolo/Saggio]
Baldini, Massimo; Gallo, Giovanni

Nel capitolo si volge lo sguardo all’importo del contributo monetario erogato ed alle sue conseguenze. Viene esposta una valutazione dell’impatto del Reis sui redditi dei poveri e sulla diffusione dell’indigenza; si quantifica poi l’ampiezza della platea interessata dalla misura, con particolare riferimento ad alcune dimensioni come la nazionalità e la ripartizione dei beneficiari tra le diverse aree del paese. Si compara quindi il Reis con gli attuali trasferimenti rivolti ai nuclei in povertà, mentre la parte finale lo pone a confronto con strumenti simili presenti in alcuni paesi europei.

2016 - Social transfers and poverty in Europe: comparing social exclusion and targeting across welfare regimes [Working paper]
Baldini, M.; Gallo, G.; Reverberi, M.; Trapani, A.

This paper studies whether there are systematic differences in the ability of cash transfers, belonging to different welfare systems, to reach the poor and to lift them out of poverty. We structure the analysis following the classic breakdown of the various European welfare states into welfare regimes, in search of specific features of them that can explain the variable results shown in the ability to effectively tackle economic poverty. The analysis is carried out both with a cross-sectional approach as well as using a more long-run definition of persistent poverty.

2015 - Study on the effects and incidence of labour taxation [Working paper]
Valkonen, Tarmo; Hofer, Helmut; Hyee, Raphaela; Loretz, Simon; Müllbacher, Sandra; Baldini, Massimo; Gallo, Giovanni; Styczynska, Izabela; Aydilek, Gokben; Adam, Stuart; Phillips, David

In the aftermath of the financial crisis most European countries are continuing to face employment problems. In a number of Member States government intervention has further resulted in increasing debt levels and high tax burdens overall and in particular on labour. Therefore well-targeted tax reforms seem to be in order to improve the labour market outcomes. It is often implicitly assumed that a decrease on the employee side, i.e. in the personal income tax rate or the employee part of social security contribution, leads to a higher labour supply. Against this background four main goals of this study emerge. First, is to identify from the literature which labour market imperfections result in employment problems and to attribute them to the labour supply or on the labour demand side. Given the heterogeneity in the labour market situation of different groups, we also set out to identify which socioeconomic groups are most vulnerable to employment problems. The next step is to review the literature which assesses the short-run and long-run economic incidence of labour taxation. To further break down the incidence into its underlying determinants we also review the literature on the (tax) elasticities of labour supply and labour demand. Then the literature on the influence of the economic environment on the tax incidence outcome, most notably the wage setting mechanisms and the institutional background, is reviewed. Finally the findings of the literature review are brought together in a framework of indicators to identify the potential of tax reforms to reduce tax related employment problems.